By Brian Boyko
Editor, Network Performance Daily
I'm supposed to be a technogeek, right? Up on the latest and greatest gadgetry. I get called on international radio morning shows to talk about the latest trends, I'm a professional blogger - a career that didn't exist half a decade ago, I'm a smart dude with all the latest tech toys, doing viral videos with my $100 flash-memory vidcam. I'm 100% Web 2.0'n, YouTubein', Facebook Friendin', RSS Feedin', Linuxin', Twenty-First-Century-Digital-Boy.
But my cellphone is about four years old and I don't use it for anything other than making phone calls. No texting, no Web browsing. It just makes phone calls. And I don't plan on upgrading anytime soon.
My friends - especially those who live overseas - all wonder why I don't yet have an iPhone, the "wundertoy" of the century. The answer can be found in Cory Doctorow's post for Information Week. In short, the iPhone sucks on purpose. Sure, it's slick looking, has a beautiful interface, and provides a great playlist. But, does it live up to its full potential? Hardly. And you have vendor lock-in to blame.
It's possible to use a song in your iTunes library as a ring tone, but someone at Apple decided they wouldn't let you. It's possible to use the iPhone on multiple carriers, or to not lock-in customers for two-year service agreements, but someone at Apple decided, for whatever reason, they wouldn't let you. It's possible to switch out SIM cards so that you'd be able to use the iPhone internationally, but - well, you get the pattern by now.
This is where VoIP comes in.
Already, we have pocket-sized computers that we carry with us - Palm Pilots and Blackberries. Despite the lukewarm acceptance of Microsoft's "Origami" initiative, ultra-mobile computing isn't that far off.
Desktop computing took off because it was a general purpose device. You can play games with it. You can send messages with it. You can write papers with it, you can draw, you can compose music - you can do all those things with the right software on general hardware. That's the big draw.
So when the iPhone comes out, for all intents and purposes a semi-powerful computer that you can hold in your pocket, the first thing Apple does is lock it down so that you can only do what Apple says you can do. It turns a general purpose device into a limited purpose device.
Additionally, despite setbacks in getting municipal WiFi off the ground, I can't see, for the life of me, the possibility that wireless access points will decrease over the next decade - only that they're not increasing at the rate that we'd like. It won't be long before Wi-Fi coverage overshoots many of the major phone carriers cellular networks - it has to, because the cellphone companies have chosen non-interoperable standards and done their best to lock people into them. Wi-Fi, on the other hand, generally pushes out the same bits, no matter where you are in the world. So while AT&T may have deep pockets, the larger number of smaller pockets putting out Wi-Fi spots around the world will move faster and change with the technology instead of trying to halt technological change in order to milk more money out of an obsolete business model.
Companies such as Skype have already laid the foundation for VoIP's replacement of the cellphone network. Companies such as OpenMoko are working on the hardware aspect of cellphone computing. I'd be surprised if these two industries weren't already talking to each other about creating a "chocolate and peanut butter" solution which will make VoIP over WiFi the killer app of the cellphone, and cellphone connectivity the killer app of VoIP over WiFi.
It's an idea that Cisco had a while back. Remember the brouhaha over the "iPhone" trademark? Well, it turns out that Cisco put out the "Linksys iPhone" a while back - a phone designed to make calls over Skype. At $120 from Amazon - with only Skype fees to pay after that, this is a technology which fills a need. The only problems are that it is currently overshadowed by the Apple product of the same name, and that, for right now, the cellphone companies do have better network coverage. That won't last long though.
The big elephant in the room is that no one really likes the cellphone companies. Indeed, a great part of the AT&T/Apple deal was Apple banking on the goodwill of the Apple corporate brand name. And so all it takes to upset the apple cart of their market share is for someone to offer a product that offers everything - including the same or better call quality - that the cellphone companies do, and not "suck on purpose." (Oh, and maybe a slick looking slim-line case with chrome accents.) When that happens, VoIP is going to take off not just for enterprise networking but for personal computing - and VoIP monitoring becomes that much more important for providers to ensure call quality, and network administrators to make sure that VoIP traffic doesn't interfere with business.